Theory of change modeling
May 12th, 2008 by admin
Theory of Change is an innovation of the Aspen Institute. The Theory of Change model defines building blocks that are required to bring about a given long term goal. The set of connected building blocks is depicted on a map known as a pathway of change, which is a graphic representation of the change process. Built around the pathway of change, a Theory of Change describes the interventions, or changes in practice, that bring about the outcomes depicted in the pathway of change map. Each outcome of the pathway is tied to an intervention, or change of practice, revealing the often complex web required to bring about change.
Different organizations and groups have their own Theories of Change. Creating one for your landscape, or segments of your landscape that are meaningful to the stakeholders involved in your planning and management process, will involve integrating different explicit and implicit theories of change.
A well developed Theory of Change requires that assumptions be articulated. Assumptions explain both the connections between early, intermediate and long term outcomes and the expectations about how and why proposed interventions will bring them about. Often, assumptions are supported by research, strengthening the case to be made about the plausibility of theory and the likelihood that stated goals will be accomplished.
Theories of change create a commonly understood vision of long-term goals, how they will be reached, and what will be used to measure progress along the way. The process of creating a theory of change for your landscape therefore can help to generate indicators that make sense to those who participate in developing the model.
Information about how to get started in constructing a Theory of Change with stakeholders is available here. Promoters of Theory of Change recommend attendance at training courses to perfect the technique.
